The planned "moral renewal" of the country can begin
The national conservative party has received 37.58 percent of the votes cast, according to the official announcement of the Polish Election Commission on Tuesday night. For the first time since the fall of communism in 1989, one political grouping is expected to rule alone in Poland.
Wearing a black suit and black tie, Kaczynski on Sunday evening, according to initial projections, dedicated the victory to his late brother Lech, who, as president of Poland, was killed in a plane crash near Smolensk in 2010. "Mr. President, I report, order executed!", he called out to him.
Against the many social promises of the PiS, against the accusation of being an elite alienated from the people, the ruling party managed to "Burger platform" (PO) to find no counter-strategy (The Comeback of Kaczynski). The still-head of government, Ewa Kopacz, referred to the stability, the economic growth in the country, and struggled with the tears in the face of a weak result. Since 2007, the conservative-liberal PO has been in power and was able to oust Jaroslaw Kaczynski, who was ruling in an authoritarian manner at the time. The party is on the verge of a new beginning, and the former Minister of Defense, Radoslaw Sikorski, is calling for a change of leadership in the face of a result of 24.09 percent.
Jaroslaw Kaczynski congratulates Beata Szydło. Picture: PiS
In any case, the trend in Poland is to the right, with the "right" in Poland more patriotism, more church, more assertion against Brussel as well as a social-democratic supply state is meant.
The "United Left", to which former Prime Minister Leszek Miller belongs, could not do much to counter this and did not get above the eight-percent hurdle that applies to party confederations in Poland for the Sejm. The Party "razem" (Together), founded in May, almost reached the five percent mark and will probably be the face of the new left. Thanks to the age of its members without post-communist legacies.
The third strongest force was the populist party "Kukiz15" of the Rocksanger Pawel Kuzik with 8,81 per cent. The charismatic bard of the people demands a stronger participation of the citizens, likes to take the enemy image of Germany out of the rhetorical mothballs and is basically willing to work together with the PiS. Kukiz also wants to support Kaczynski in changing the constitution – the Catholic Church, which PiS supported in the election campaign, is to be given even more rights and the judiciary is to be restricted in favor of the government. At least, this is the case with the 2010 constitutional reform, which was removed from the web shortly before the election so as not to scare off more moderate voters.
The PiS, that is above all the 66-year-old string-puller Jaroslaw Kaczynski
To change the 1997 referendum, the PiS needs 307 votes out of 460 deputies in the Sejm, which, as things stand, it cannot muster. But it can poach parliamentarians. This may include its former coalition partner, the PSL, which, with 5.13 percent, wants to eke out a rather marginal existence in the Sejm. The clear opposition to the PiS is the radical market party "Modern Poland" with 7.6 percent, saying that the PO has progressed too slowly with privatization. "We need the unification of all forces to protect liberal democracy", says the liberal Gazeta Wyborcza on Monday.
But even so, the PiS has a number of tools at its disposal to change Poland to its liking. The PiS, that is above all the 66-year-old string-puller Jaroslaw Kaczynski. President Andrzej Duda, elected in May, is unlikely to block draft legislation. He was chosen by Kaczynski as his candidate in December, and his campaign manager Beata Szydlo will now take over as prime minister.
She cannot be expected to make her own mark; she can be quickly replaced by the leader in person. The PiS leader is much more influenced by Hungarian Prime Minister Victor Orban and his authoritarian leadership. Kaczynski also wants to emulate him in the rigorous refugee policy. On this ie, a conflict with the EU and Germany is inevitable. Kaczynski, doctor of the right, has already announced to ask in Brussel for the "Safeguarding national interests" want to fight. The experience of the government from 2005 to 2007 shows that it often attaches conditions to good relations with political partners that they have to fulfill. But first PiS will try a positive symbolic policy with Germany.
The Kremlin also views the election rather skeptically, saying that there is a "Complication" of Russian-Polish relations, according to Konstantin Kosachev, head of the Duma’s foreign policy committee. , which the party "nationalist" calls.
The neighbor to the east was not very pleased with the push for Polish reorganization. The current Ministry of Defense has planned spending of more than 130 billion zloty (30.5 billion euros) for 2013-2022; Kaczynski wants to increase spending because it is not possible to rely solely on NATO as a partner.
Conflict potential also has the topic "Smolensk". For Kaczynski personally, the most important thing is the clarification of the crash, many PiS supporters ame an attack, they demand an international commission and the release of the wreckage, which is still held back by Russia. For the next anniversary, the 10. April, he already announced "the truth" about the course of events.
Kaczynski also blames the politicians of the ruling PO party, who did not do enough to clear up the blame. "I do not want retaliation", he said several times, including on election night. And at the same time put it into perspective: "Those who are lying on the ground should not be kicked yet."